Syria at Crossroads: Geostrategy Amid Turmoil

Rawan Al-Hiyari

Amid escalating unrest in the Middle East, a stable and unified Syria is a vital interest for its people and a strategic necessity for the broader Middle East. Achieving this requires concerted international efforts to support Syria’s sovereignty, security, and the will of its people.

Reflecting on the disintegration of the Assad regime and the emergence of a “new Syria,” recent American, Russian, and French statements highlight the possibility of regional ceasefires, particularly in Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Embedded within these declarations are subtle hints of looming political, security, and demographic scenarios that could redefine the region’s power dynamics.

As sectarian and ethnic tensions rise, the Middle East may enter a new phase characterised by shifting spheres of influence fueled by diverse regional actors. This growing sectarian and political fragmentation risks solidifying into de facto divisions along ethnic and religious lines. In Syria, for instance, Sunni factions dominate in Aleppo, Idlib, Homs, and Hama; Kurdish forces consolidate power in the north; Druze communities maintain influence in the south; and Alawites hold the coastal regions. However, Damascus and its surrounding areas remain contested within these evolving understandings.

This landscape evokes memories of the early 20th century’s territorial delineations in the Middle East, driven by agreements such as Sykes-Picot and the Versailles settlements. From Bernard Lewis to Zbigniew Brzezinski, strategic thinkers have long forecasted the region’s fragmentation into ethnically and religiously delineated enclaves. The echoes of such projections aligned with visions of a “New Middle East,” or the so-called “creative chaos,” remain relevant, even as the international actors reshaping the region evolve.

Jordan, positioned at the crossroads of this volatile environment, has emerged as a responsible regional mediator. Bordering multiple hotspots, the Kingdom balances a heavy diplomatic and humanitarian role, advocating for consensus-driven solutions to safeguard its national interests. Since the escalation of the Gaza conflict on the 7th of October, Jordan has repeatedly warned against fueling further regional instability. The Aqaba meetings have underscored the necessity of stabilising Syria as a strategic priority for the entire region.

The reconstruction of Syria and the broader Middle East requires economic and developmental solutions that transcend militaristic and security-focused frameworks. Such initiatives must restore trust among Arab societies, presenting opportunities for regional prosperity.

If harnessed correctly, the post-conflict reconstruction era could serve as a springboard for economic growth and collaboration. Conversely, failure to address underlying tensions risks plunging the region into another cycle of violence with unpredictable consequences.

The plight of Syrian refugees remains a critical issue, requiring comprehensive international cooperation to ensure voluntary, dignified repatriation. To rebuild their homeland, sustainable solutions must address safety, economic stability, and inclusive governance.

In this moment of both peril and potential, a unified international stance on Syria’s future is critical. Stability in Syria is not just a regional imperative but a cornerstone for peace and progress in the Middle East. Only through comprehensive, inclusive, and forward-looking strategies can the region break free from the cycles of conflict and embrace a better future.