Participation Rates in the 2024 Elections

shahennews

Dr. Hasan Abdullah Al-Dajah
Professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University

The 2024 Jordanian parliamentary elections are an important political event that reflects a new stage in the path of democracy and political reform in the Kingdom. These elections come in a complex internal and regional context, which imposes increasing challenges in terms of the participation rate and the impact of external factors. Among the internally influential factors is the political awareness of voters, as there is still a disparity in perception of the role of elections and the importance of participating in them. Despite the electoral reforms witnessed by the country, the biggest challenge remains enhancing confidence in the electoral process and the ability of Parliament to make tangible changes that improve living conditions.
The deteriorating economic conditions cast a shadow over the upcoming elections, as Jordanian citizens suffer from the challenges of unemployment and the high cost of living. This situation may lead to a large segment of voters refraining from participating, due to their lack of confidence that the next parliament will be able to provide solutions to the economic crises. In addition, there are growing concerns about the influence of political money and tribalism in the electoral process, which may lead to weakening public confidence in the integrity of the elections.
On the other hand, the external influence on the elections cannot be overlooked. The Jordanian parliamentary elections come amid tense regional conditions, especially with the ongoing crises in Syria, Iraq, and the war in Gaza, which increases the importance of internal stability for voters. These crises may indirectly affect the direction of voters’ votes, as many tend to seek political and social stability under these circumstances. There is also the possibility of external interventions from regional or international powers, whether through supporting some parties or influencing voters through the media.
Based on internal and external factors, the turnout in the 2024 Jordanian parliamentary elections is expected to be moderate to low, with estimates indicating that the turnout may range between 35% and 45%. This estimate is based on a set of indicators related to political, social, and economic challenges.
One key indicator is the deteriorating economic conditions that Jordanians are suffering from, including high unemployment rates and increasing costs of living. Studies indicate that the general economic situation directly affects voters’ willingness to participate, as many citizens feel frustrated with the parliament’s ability to address these issues, which leads to a decline in motivation to vote.
In addition, the level of trust in government institutions plays an important role in determining the turnout rate. Ongoing challenges related to transparency and fairness in the electoral process make some voters doubt the parliament’s ability to bring about real change, which leads to a decline in turnout.
A prominent indicator is the growing frustration with the current parliamentary performance, as many citizens feel that previous parliaments did not provide tangible solutions to the economic and social challenges they face. This feeling may lead to a loss of confidence in the ability of the new parliament to make a real difference, which discourages voters from participating.
In addition, the increasing influence of social media in shaping public opinion plays a role in reducing enthusiasm for participation. With widespread criticism of the electoral process spreading on social media platforms, many citizens find themselves trapped in an environment of doubt and apathy. Social influences such as the strength of tribalism and the presence of political money also influence voters’ decisions. In areas where tribes dominate or political money is widespread, citizens may feel that election results are predetermined, which leads them to refrain from participating.

These indicators are a complex mix of internal factors that reflect the ongoing challenges facing the electoral process in Jordan and contribute to shaping potential participation in upcoming elections.
Despite the electoral reforms introduced to strengthen the role of political parties in Jordan, more conservative estimates suggest that the percentage of parties winning seats outside the party quota may range between 15% and 20%. This is due to several factors that make it difficult for parties to make further progress in upcoming elections.
A key factor is the continued dominance of tribalism in many areas, where family and tribal loyalties continue to play a greater role than voting for parties on programmatic or ideological grounds. In these areas, voters tend to vote for their tribal candidates rather than party representatives, reducing the parties’ chances of winning additional seats.
In addition, political money remains a major challenge for political parties. Some independent candidates or those who rely on strong financial support can influence voters in unconventional ways, making it difficult for parties to compete in this climate. Political parties, especially new or small ones, may face difficulty in raising sufficient financial resources to run effective campaigns, putting them at a disadvantage compared to independent candidates.
In addition, the organizational weakness within some parties, and the lack of experience in managing election campaigns in a competitive electoral environment such as Jordan, represent another obstacle that reduces their ability to achieve outstanding results. Based on these factors, the influence of parties is expected to remain relatively limited in the upcoming elections, which may negatively affect their percentage of winning seats outside the party quota.
The weakness of the internal organization of some parties and the lack of financial resources also constitutes another obstacle that hinders their ability to run effective election campaigns. These challenges may reduce the parties’ chances of winning additional seats outside the party quota.
Finally: The 2024 Jordanian parliamentary elections constitute a real test of the path of political reform in the country. Despite internal and external challenges, there are opportunities for political parties to make significant progress. The level of political awareness and the rate of participation remain crucial factors in determining the features of the new parliament, at a time when the country is looking to achieve a balance between internal stability and effective popular participation.